Brine Prospect / Lithium lease calculator
How much is my lithium lease worth?
A lithium lease is worth its signing bonus plus the royalty you would collect if a plant gets built, marked down for the years of waiting and the chance it never happens. Arkansas is the only state with a public rate. Regulators there set 2.5% of lithium revenue in 2025, which comes to about $405 per net mineral acre per year at $15,000 a tonne on the first approved unit, plus a $65.05 annual brine fee.
Free to use. No sign-up. Updated October 5, 2026.
Calculator
See what your lithium rights could be worth, low case to high case
Choose where your minerals are, enter your acres or your water, and move the concentration slider. The estimate assumes the lithium is yours to lease or sell. The example shows 40 net mineral acres in East Texas.
Anyone making a serious offer has a number in mind for your water. Know yours first.
The kit measures the one number this estimate cannot know.
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Lithium royalty per acre, at three prices
The Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission approved the state's first lithium royalty on May 28, 2025, for the Reynolds Brine Unit operated by SWA Lithium, a joint venture of Standard Lithium and Equinor. The rate is 2.5% of lithium revenue, paid quarterly, plus an annual brine fee of $65.05 an acre. The unit covers 20,854 acres and the plant is planned for 22,500 tonnes of lithium carbonate a year, which is 1.08 tonnes for every acre in the unit. The plan assumes brine averaging 442 mg/L over the life of the project.
| Lithium carbonate price | 2.5% royalty, per net acre per year | With the $65.05 brine fee |
|---|---|---|
| $10,000 a tonne | $270 | $335 |
| $15,000 a tonne | $405 | $470 |
| $20,000 a tonne | $540 | $605 |
This is one unit's plan, not a guarantee. The plant is not built yet, first production is targeted for 2028, and other units will produce more or less lithium per acre. Lithium carbonate traded near $18,000 a tonne in early October 2026 and under $10,000 at the 2025 low, so the price row you pick matters as much as the rate.
How the math works
Acreage in a brine play. In a brine unit, every owner shares the royalty by acreage, wherever the wells sit. The calculator takes the first approved Arkansas unit as its benchmark, 1.08 tonnes of lithium carbonate a year per acre at an average of 442 mg/L, and scales it to your concentration.
tonnes per unit acre = 1.08 x your concentration / 442
royalty per year = net acres x tonnes per unit acre x price x royalty rate + any per-acre fee
Water from oil and gas wells. The lithium comes from the water volume and its concentration.
lithium, tonnes per year = barrels per day x 158.987 liters x mg/L x 365 / 1,000,000,000
lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) = lithium x 5.323
royalty per year = LCE x recovery x price x royalty rate
Value today. A royalty that starts years from now, on a plant that may not get built, is worth less than its face value. This is also the starting point for what a buyer might pay for the rights outright.
value today = present value of the royalty payments x chance a plant is built
The calculator discounts each year's payment at the rate you set, starting in the year of the first check. It sets the chance a plant is built by concentration: 10% under 25 mg/L, 20% under 50, 30% under 65, 45% under 100 and 60% above. Those odds are a starting point for your own judgment, not a measurement, and you can replace them.
The calculator assumes the lithium is yours. Whether it is depends on your state and your lease, and the guide to lithium mineral rights covers each case.
Worked example: 40 net mineral acres in East Texas
Forty net acres over the Smackover, at a 2.5% royalty and $15,000 a tonne. The only thing that changes below is the concentration.
| Lithium in the brine | Royalty a year if built | Chance built | Value today |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 mg/L, the median of public Smackover samples | $3,080 | 45% | $6,580 |
| 668 mg/L, the Franklin Project average | $24,500 | 60% | $69,700 |
| 806 mg/L, the highest reported | $29,500 | 60% | $84,100 |
Same acres, same lease terms, and the value today runs from about $6,580 to about $84,100. Value today counts a 5-year wait, 20 years of payments and a 12% discount rate.
Worked example: 2,000 barrels of water a day in the Permian Basin
Wells on your minerals make 2,000 barrels of water a day. At 75% recovery, a 2.5% royalty and $15,000 a tonne:
| Lithium in the water | Royalty a year if built | Chance built | Value today |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mg/L, the low end of public samples | $174 | 10% | $92 |
| 14 mg/L, the published Wolfcamp figure | $2,430 | 10% | $1,290 |
| 30 mg/L, the high end of public samples | $5,210 | 20% | $5,540 |
Permian water is lean, and the numbers show it. The spread is still about 60 to 1 between the low case and the high case, and the public sample set behind those figures is small. The concentration does most of the work. That is why it is worth measuring.
What moves the answer most
- Concentration, or plant output per acre. It sets how much lithium there is to pay a royalty on, and whether anyone builds a plant at all.
- Lithium price. It roughly doubled between the 2025 low and October 2026. A royalty tied to a published price moves with it.
- Royalty rate and what it applies to. A percentage of gross lithium sales is not the same as a percentage of raw brine value or of net proceeds.
- Timing. Each year of delay before the first check takes roughly the discount rate off the value.
- Whether the plant gets built. A lease to a developer who never builds pays only the bonus.
Questions about lithium lease value
How much is a lithium lease worth per acre?
On the first approved Arkansas unit, the 2.5% royalty works out to about $270 per net mineral acre per year with lithium carbonate at $10,000 a tonne, $405 at $15,000 and $540 at $20,000, plus a $65.05 per acre annual brine fee. That assumes the plant is built and reaches its planned 22,500 tonnes a year across the 20,854-acre unit. Before a plant is built, the lease is worth its signing bonus plus a discounted chance of that royalty.
What is a fair royalty rate for lithium?
The only public benchmark is Arkansas, where the Oil and Gas Commission set 2.5% of lithium revenue on May 28, 2025. The developer first asked for 1.82% and mineral owners asked for 12.5%. Texas has no set rate, so every lease is negotiated. Check what the royalty is a percentage of: a share of gross lithium sales is worth far more than a share of the value of raw brine or of net proceeds after costs.
What signing bonus should a lithium lease pay?
There is no public benchmark. Bonus terms in lithium and brine leases are private. The bonus is the only money that does not depend on a plant being built, so compare it with the estimated value today in the calculator rather than with the headline royalty.
When do lithium royalties start?
Only when a plant is producing and selling lithium. The first approved Arkansas unit targets first production in 2028. Until then a lease pays its bonus and any rentals or fees written into it. The calculator discounts the royalty for those years of waiting.
How do I value lithium in produced water from oil and gas wells?
Multiply barrels a day by 158.987 liters, by the lithium concentration in milligrams per liter and by 365 days to get lithium per year, then by 5.323 to convert to lithium carbonate equivalent. For example, 2,000 barrels a day at 14 mg/L carries about 8.6 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent a year. At 75% recovery, $15,000 a tonne and a 2.5% royalty, that is about $2,430 a year.
Is this calculator an appraisal?
No. It is a screening estimate built from public benchmarks and the numbers you enter. It is not an appraisal, an offer or legal advice. Concentration should be confirmed by sampling and ownership by an attorney who has read your lease.
What if I do not know my lithium concentration?
Nobody does until the water is tested. The calculator starts at the published figure for your basin and shows the low case and the high case side by side, so you can see how much rides on that one number. Public samples are sparse and old, so a measurement from your own water is worth more than any published figure. That is what the Brine Prospect test kit is for.
Sources
- Arkansas Advocate, "Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission approves first lithium royalty rate," May 29, 2025. arkansasadvocate.com
- Standard Lithium Ltd., Form 6-K, royalty approval for the South West Arkansas Project (2.5% royalty, $65.05 per acre fee, 22,500 tonnes a year, 2028 target). www.sec.gov
- Smackover Lithium, definitive feasibility study for the South West Arkansas Project, filed October 14, 2025 (442 mg/L average over the project life, 549 mg/L at start-up). www.nacleanenergy.com
- Argent Financial Group, "Lithium Updates from the Smackover Region," August 25, 2025 (unit acreages, Texas has no set rate). argentfinancial.com
- Shreveport-Bossier Advocate, Arkansas royalty coverage, June 6, 2025 (1.82% proposed, 12.5% sought). www.shreveportbossieradvocate.com
- Supreme Court of Texas, Cactus Water Services, LLC v. COG Operating, LLC, No. 23-0676, June 27, 2025. txcourts.gov
- McGuireWoods, "Texas Supreme Court Rules Produced Water Is Oil and Gas Waste, Further Disputes Foreshadowed," July 2025. www.mcguirewoods.com
- Pillsbury, "Texas Reshapes Liability and Regulatory Rules on Produced Water, Leaves Ownership Questions Unanswered," June 9, 2025 (SB 1763 did not advance). www.pillsburylaw.com
- Vinson & Elkins, "Brine Time: Texas' Latest in Lithium Law," April 1, 2025 (Railroad Commission Rule 3.82, effective February 18, 2025). velaw.com
- Baker Botts, "Ownership of Lithium in Water Reservoirs May Hinge on Texas Law," January 2025. www.bakerbotts.com
- Texas Natural Resources Code, section 122.002 (ownership of fluid oil and gas waste transferred for treatment and beneficial use). statutes.capitol.texas.gov
- Smackover Lithium, maiden inferred resource for the Franklin Project in East Texas, November 5, 2025 (668 mg/L average, 806 mg/L peak). www.barchart.com
- "Geological controls on lithium production from basinal brines," study using the USGS National Produced Waters Geochemical Database (basin medians, 65 and 100 mg/L thresholds). par.nsf.gov
- National Energy Technology Laboratory, Mackey, lithium in Marcellus Shale produced water, 2024 (medians of 205 and 127 mg/L). netl.doe.gov
- Environmental Science: Water Research & Technology, 2025, lithium in shale produced waters (Wolfcamp near 14 ppm, Permian 1 to 30 ppm). pubs.rsc.org
- Select Water Solutions and LibertyStream Infrastructure Partners, definitive agreement for lithium carbonate production in Texas, February 9, 2026. www.businesswire.com
- MetalCharts, lithium carbonate price, read October 4, 2026 (Guangzhou futures converted to U.S. dollars). metalcharts.org
- CarbonCredits.com, "Lithium Prices Crash Below $10K, Hitting a 4-Year Low". carboncredits.com
Estimates on this page are for screening only. They are not an appraisal, an offer or legal advice.
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